Paying the full amount for a new game at release can be very costly. However, if you wait for the price to drop you miss out on an official launch event and there may also be some perks associated with preordering. As such, I cannot tell you whether it is worth waiting as it clearly depends on your own patience and budget. Nevertheless, I can give you the facts on historic sales, so you can make an informed decision.

Brief about the approach

In short, this is an analysis of how long it takes for new game releases to go on their first sale and how much discount you can expect. It covers high-rated, big-budget PC games between 2018 and 2022 in their digital versions on global stores like Steam, Epic, Origin, Ubisoft, Blizzard, and Microsoft. If you want to know more about the approach, read below.

Now, let’s jump in.

Game releases

Below is an overview of the games included in the analysis. As I mentioned in the methodology section, there are surprisingly few high-rated AAA games.

It takes 70 days on average before the first sale

This means that you should, on average, wait 70 days between the release date and the first sale before you buy.

However, the average may be slightly misleading because Elden Ring took 300 days to go on sale. I suspect that this particular game is not representative of a typical scenario, as it was highly anticipated and released during Covid with very little competition. If we remove Elden Ring from the equation, it takes approximately 2 months for the first sale.

Most games dropped within 1-3 months

If we take a more detailed look, most games dropped in price within 1-3 months. In my opinion, this is actually not bad. but there are also a few games that took half a year and more to go on their first sale. The problem is, of course, you don’t know where your specific game belongs when it’s new. However, also keep in mind that I only selected highly rated games, which means this is probably a “worst-case scenario” as lower-rated games may be forced to go on sale faster.

You can get a discount of 25% on average

If you decide to wait, you may on average get a 25% discount. This is equivalent to savings of 15 EUR / 16 USD compared to the full price at release.

Realistically expect between 10-30% discount

Again, if we go into the details, the most frequent discount is 11-20 %. Most games get their first discount somewhere between 10% and 30%. Also, keep in mind that I only include the first sale. The discount will inevitably increase when the game gets older.

A breakdown per game reveals big differences

If you’re interested in how long it took for the first sale on specific games, you can see a detailed breakdown below.

It is pretty evident that Elden Ring is an extreme example that took 300 days before the first sale. On the other end of the spectrum, some games that went quickly on sale were released close to Christmas, which is another thing to consider. If a sale event is on the horizon, it may be worth waiting to see if the game gets discounted.

As you may also notice, there’s no clear pattern between the time you have to wait for a sale and the discount you get. That is, waiting longer for the first sale does not guarantee you a larger discount.

When in doubt, check on Steam

Steam was the first to put most games on sale. This is not surprising as the platform also by far has the largest selection. However, even when the game was offered in multiple stores, Steam was a frequent winner, which leads me to conclude that you can’t go completely wrong on Steam. Blizzard is a bit out of comparison here because they sell their own games exclusively on PC.

Conclusion

For highly rated AAA games, it takes on average 2 months before the first sale appears. If the game is released around Christmas, a sale may be near. On average, you can expect to save around 25% when the game goes on sale for the first time and there’s a high likelihood that you will find the sale on Steam.

I think 25% is a pretty decent discount but then again, 2 months can be a loooong time to wait. The choice is up to you.

Full dataset